學過基本地球科學的人都明白,當地殼受到擠壓時會就引發斷層,因為板塊移動的能量是巨大而緩慢的,因此地殼長期承受一定的應力(具有方向性的壓力),而地震活動就是釋放這種累積應力的方式。
不是受到擠壓就會地震
但是除了地殼應力外,還有一種因素會影響地震的活動,那就是地表的侵蝕,因為在海平面以上的陸地可以視為杯子中的冰塊,水面上方的冰塊和下方的冰塊大小是保持平衡的,而侵蝕會改變這個平衡,使應力重新分配。
這個因素是很容易可以理解的,但是卻很少有科學家討論,原因是地球上大部分的陸地侵蝕速率都不會太快,因此很難真正證明這個論點。
然而,台灣的例子給了我們很好的機會。
來自德國的GFZ地球科學研究中心團隊和台灣中研院團隊證明了這一點。
颱風與隨之而來的侵蝕
由於菲律賓海板塊與歐亞板塊的劇烈碰撞,台灣一直是世界上造山運動最活躍的地區之一(中學課本百提不厭的經典),同時,我們還得面對每年的颱風與土石流災害,雖然每次都會造成或大或小的傷亡與損失,但是對於地球科學的了解總是在一次次災害中更進一步。
證明「侵蝕作用會改變地震分布」論點的事件就是2009年令人難忘的莫拉克風災。
在2009年8月的短短三天內,莫拉克颱風帶來了3,000毫米的雨量(德國柏林一整年也才550毫米),造成681人死亡與18人失蹤;同時大量的土石流與山崩事件造成了可觀的損失。
法國雷恩大學的菲利普·斯蒂爾(Philippe Steer)與其國際團隊對這次侵蝕事件發生後的地震進行了統計評估,他們發現在莫拉克風災的2.5年後,小型地震與淺層地震的發生頻率比以往高出許多,而這個現象只發生在地表侵蝕嚴重的區域。 GFZ研究人員則解釋「當土石流或山崩發生,原本陸地的物質被河流帶走,地殼表面的荷重分布就會改變,自然也會影響地震發生的樣貌。」
在台灣,多數的斷層都是逆斷層,這種斷層的性質是因為擠壓而破裂,但是斷層面上強大的摩擦力會將斷層暫時「鎖住」,直到累積足夠大的能量才會釋放(彈性回跳理論),而台灣的強烈的地表侵蝕現象打破了這個平衡,也只有台灣,這個老是被颱風撞到的倒楣區域,才能讓這個論點真正被證明。
研究人員還說:「地震是最危險和最具破壞力的自然災害。徹底明瞭構造和外部過程引發的地震,對於評估地震危險是至關重要和實際的,特別是在人口稠密的地區。」

Photo credit: Jonathan Ford via Unsplash
感想
地球科學出身的我,看到這個新聞真的是喜憂參半,每當看見學校教授使用的國際教材中出現台灣的身影,就越發了解台灣的研究價值。
然而這也代表台灣人要無法逃避的宿命:多災多苦難,任何厲害的研究背後常常是許多條人命換來的。但有時候轉眼一想,其實其他領域又何嘗不是如此?醫學的推進也是由許多屍體堆疊而來,近代錯誤的工程設計同樣多不勝數,但正是因為這些失敗,我們才能一次次記取教訓,建構更進步的社會。
還好2020年是個安穩的一年,沒有風災侵襲,唯一要提防的就是武漢肺炎了,希望疫情早日結束。
新聞原文:Typhoon changed earthquake patterns
論文出處:Earthquake statistics changed by typhoon-driven erosion
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